Working Papers:
"When Identities Coexist: Nation-Building Policy and Minority Identity Integration."
Draft available upon request.
How do nation-building policies shape minorities' identities? Existing scholarship predicts two zero-sum responses: assimilation into national identity at the expense of ethnic identity, or retrenchment into ethnic identity at the expense of national belonging. I introduce a conceptual framework systematizing minority identity responses to nation-building policy and develop a theory of identity compatibility to explain non-zero-sum responses. I theorize that contexts permitting dual identification--- including when elite narratives and policies are more inclusive---enable national identity to grow without eroding ethnic attachments. Applying this framework to original panel survey, administrative, and qualitative data collected before and after Estonia's 2024 Russian-language schooling ban, I find that affected Russophone parents experienced a significant increase in national belonging while maintaining strong ethnic attachments. The policy also loosened perceived criteria for membership in the national community, making dual identification more feasible. These findings have implications for the study of integration, nation-building, and ethnic politics.
"Countering Authoritarian Propaganda: Evidence from Russia at War." With Isabelle DeSisto, Grigore Pop-Eleches and Jacob Tucker.
Draft available upon request. (Under review)
When do anti-regime messages persuade citizens in autocracies to update their political attitudes? The literature on authoritarian politics has devoted considerable attention to understanding how pro-regime propaganda affects attitudes, but far less to the converse: when and how anti-regime messaging manages to stem the tide of state propaganda. We extend existing theories of source credibility and persuasiveness - rooted mainly in research from Western democratic settings - to the less-studied contexts of authoritarian regimes and wartime politics. We demonstrate that even people living in an autocracy during a large-scale war infused with nationalist propaganda put greater weight on anti-regime messages that come from experts. To illustrate this argument, we draw on time-series data and a survey experiment conducted in Russia, which together indicate that messages criticizing the regime and its policies are more persuasive when they come from sources with subject-matter expertise - even if the source is not part of the in-group.
Works in Progress:
"Breaking Silos in the Study of Political Exclusion and Inclusion." With Harris Mylonas. Draft in progress.
"Introducing Russia Watcher, A Daily Tracking Survey of Russian Public Opinion." With Isabelle DeSisto, Grigore Pop-Eleches and Jacob Tucker. Draft in progress.
"Explaining Solidarity with Foreign War Victims: Empathy versus Threat." With Felix Beilin, Isabelle DeSisto, and Grigore Pop-Eleches. Under Review.
"The Political Consequences of Wartime Casualties in Russia." With Isabelle DeSisto, Grigore Pop-Eleches and Jacob Tucker.
Draft available upon request.