Working Papers:
"Beyond Assimilation or Backlash: Identity Coexistence under Nation-Building Policy."
Draft available upon request.
How do state-driven nation-building policies shape minorities’ identities? I develop a framework that identifies ways in which state interventions can affect both the national and ethnic identities of targeted minorities. The motivating observation of this framework is that changes in ethnic and national identity need not be zero-sum. I apply this framework to original panel data collected before and after Estonia’s 2024 ban on Russian language from public schooling. I find that parents of affected minority individuals experience a substantial increase in national identity while simultaneously maintaining strong attachments to their minority ethnic identity. I show that the policy’s implementation also loosened perceptions of the conditions for belonging to the national community. I refute alternative explanations of the main results, including the desire for assimilation and material incentives, with panel survey and enrollment data. These findings refine theories of nation-building and inter-ethnic politics, showing that linguistic homogenization policies can, under conditions of identity compatibility, foster national identification without eroding ethnic identity.
"Countering Authoritarian Propaganda: Evidence from Russia at War." With Isabelle DeSisto, Grigore Pop-Eleches and Jacob Tucker.
Draft available upon request. (Under review)
When do anti-regime messages persuade citizens in autocracies to update their political attitudes? The literature on authoritarian politics has devoted considerable attention to understanding how pro-regime propaganda affects attitudes, but far less to the converse: when and how anti-regime messaging manages to stem the tide of state propaganda. We extend existing theories of source credibility and persuasiveness - rooted mainly in research from Western democratic settings - to the less-studied contexts of authoritarian regimes and wartime politics. We demonstrate that even people living in an autocracy during a large-scale war infused with nationalist propaganda put greater weight on anti-regime messages that come from experts. To illustrate this argument, we draw on time-series data and a survey experiment conducted in Russia, which together indicate that messages criticizing the regime and its policies are more persuasive when they come from sources with subject-matter expertise - even if the source is not part of the in-group.
Works in Progress:
"Breaking Silos in the Study of Political Exclusion and Inclusion." With Harris Mylonas. Draft in progress.
"Introducing and Validating Russia Watcher, A Daily Tracking Survey of Russian Public Opinion". With Isabelle DeSisto, Grigore Pop-Eleches and Jacob Tucker. Draft in progress.
"The Political Consequences of Wartime Casualties in Russia." With Isabelle DeSisto, Grigore Pop-Eleches and Jacob Tucker.
Draft available upon request.